Secrets and Lies

Monday July 27th

This was yet another day, when, so far as the public knew, nothing much of importance was happening. But the fact was, the Austro-Hungarian Council of Ministers met in secret and voted to declare war on Serbia. This was a totally stupid and unnecessary decision. Even Conrad, who was eager for action question it. He couldn't understand why the council was declaring war two weeks before the completion of them mobilizing their troops. But Berchtold's determination to commit the dual monarchy to military action before Germany's position softened or the mediation proposals coming out of Britain could have any effect, brought Conrad around.

The declaration of war was to be announced Tuesday, but required the approval of Franz Joseph. But when Berchtold and Conrad went to see him, he was very reluctant about declaring war. Berchtold and Conrad told him lies about Serbian attacks. Nothing really happened except for a little gunfire at a border town. But believing Berchtold and Conrad, the Emperor signed to go to war. In preparing to sign, he trembled so badly that he could hardly put on his glasses.

Back in London, Grey read the text of Serbia's response to the ultimatum and found it promising. He met with Lichnowsky and repeated his suggestion of a conference of the powers. Lichnowsky again relayed this message to Berlin, urging them to pursue it. But Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg, who hated the proposal, but didn't want to offend the British, responded by telling them he was forwarding the message to Vienna. But the Chancellor made it clear to Austria's Ambassador to Berlin, that the German government wanted nothing to do with Grey's ideas. He tells them to disregard them, but they have to pass the message on to Austria to satisfy the English.

Germany and Austria had reason to be skeptical of this conference, because at least 2 of the 4 countries that would participate, France and Italy would have little reason to be sympathetically on Austria's grievances. And 3rd, Britain seemed unlikely to do anything to damage its relations with France or Russia. The Germans and Austrians believed a conference would just be a substitute talk for action, degenerating into a sterile debate over the wording of the Austrian not and Serbia's response. In the end they feared that Serbia would walk away scot-free, with Austria-Hungary looking on helplessly as in 1912-1913. This would only encourage the Serb activists both in and outside the Hapsburg Empire to continue to make trouble. This would also cause Austria-Hungary's other minorities to do the same.

The Austrian's also had financial reasons to for resisting mediation. Conrad had never been given enough money to keep their armies of Vienna competitive with the other great powers in size, equipment or technology and the mobilizations during the 2 Balkan Wars had been very costly as they where fruitless. By 1914 all the great powers, but Austria-Hungary especially, were creaking under the weight of an arms race that was becoming constantly more onerous as the machinery of war grew more massive and complex. Vienna could not afford to keep mobilizing year after year. So when they mobilized this time, they wanted to make sure they got something for its money.

Kaiser Wilhelm arrived home this same afternoon all this was going on. Chancellor Bethman and Gottieb von Jagow, the head of German Foreign Ministry, were not delighted by this at all. They feared that Kaiser would interfere in their handling of the crisis. Now with or without the presence of the Kaiser around. Berthman and Jagow were not an ideal pair to be steering the most powerful state in Europe through such difficult straits.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg

 Bethmann was a tall, dour career civil servant who five years earlier had been raised to Chancellorship despite having no experience in foreign affairs and despite being disliked by the Kaiser. Like many Germans in high places, he was terrified by the presence of unfriendly powers to the east and west. He was convinced that Germany could only grow more vulnerable with the passage of time.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Gottlieb von Jagow

Jagow was a frail hypochondriac who had used an elder brother's connections to get into the Foreign Service and had then successfully leveraged those same connections to get a series of plush and undemanding assignments in Rome and elsewhere. When summoned home to head the Foreign Ministry, he had pulled every string he could reach in a futile effort to escape. But nothing worked. He was appointed.

Late that night, Vienna sent went to Berlin of its decision to declare war. When Bethmann and Jagow got the message, they were not astonished. This is what Berlin had been pushing and hoping for. No one told the Kaiser, after all its what he had wanted to.