Secrets and Lies


Sunday July 26th

On this day no headlines were printed, and supposedly little was being done. But things where happening particularly in Austria and Russia where leaders were now putting their military machines in motion and hoped all the other powers would understand.

Austria mobilized and hoped by doing so this would make France and Britain realize how serious this was and if they wanted  to avoid something worse than just a Balkan problem, they needed to restrain Russia. And France mattered more than anyone. They were Russia's biggest Ally. And without France, Russia would not even attempt to go to war with anyone.

Britain matter only because it was powerful, even though their army was small. And they had allied themselves with France and Russia in a loose and informed way, and because it was certain to want to avoid a general war.

Now the 2nd of Vienna's purposes could not possibly be achieved. France's President Poincare was still at sea. With wireless communication still primitive and Germany attempting to jam radio transmissions, he was nearly incommunicado. And Britain's Foreign Secretary was paralyzed by his government. No one in Paris or London was going to be pressuring St. Petersburg, Berlin, or Vienna for that matter-to do anything.

Grey's biggest concern was the threat from Germany. He believed if war broke out between Austria and Russia, this would lead to war between Germany and France, and Britain would then have to choose sides and they would side with France. On July 26th, Grey felt the only thing he could do was to communicate his concerns to the German Ambassador in London, Prince Karl Lichnowsky, and suggest a conference of Britain, France, Germany and Italy as a means of resolving the crisis.

Lichnowsky seized this opportunity, He knew Grey and other British leaders were likely to oppose Germany in a showdown. Lichnowsky sent a telegram to Berlin stating "I would like to call your attention to the significance of Grey's proposal of mediation "a quatre" between Austria and Russia. For I see that this is the only possibility to avoid a World War, in which for us there would be everything to lose and nothing to gain."

Russia at this point was hoping that their declaration of a Period Preparatory to War, would make Austria reconsider going to war. Even St. Petersburg was eager to make Berlin to believe that it was not being threatened. But the German intelligence soon learned that Russia was doing much more then it would admit to anyone. Russia not only feared the dispute over Serbia, but they desperately feared that the balance of power in Europe would be called into question.

Now the German Military attache in St. Petersburg kept making inquiries to Russia about their plans and what they were doing, and kept getting met with lies as a response from Russia. This made Berlin increasingly nervous, for intel kept coming in that Russia was mobilizing. Berlin became progressively less willing to accept the assurance of goodwill coming from St. Petersburg.

Now France's Ambassador in St. Peterburg, Maurice Paleologue was able to keep himself informed of the extent of Russia's preparations. Russia was under an entente with France, and was supposed to tell Paris in advance of any mobilization plans, but Paleologue didn't enforce this, it appeared that he didn't want to discourage the Russians from proceeding. Paleologue didn't even tell his own government that Russia was mobilizing, he wanted no one in Paris to restrain Russia.

But now a similar game was also being played in Vienna by Germany's Ambassador Tschirschky, he thought it was his duty to encourage Austrian aggressiveness without doing so openly.

But is so happened that on this Sunday, Kaiser Wilhelm's younger brother, Prince Heinrich of Prussia was in England visiting King George V. Heinrich sent a message to Berlin telling them that London wanted to stay neutral, even though the king had nothing to do with foreign policy. The only problem with this was, Prince Heinrich had earned a bad reputation at not being a reliable reporter, and his message contradicted warnings from Ambassador Lichnowsky, who no one took seriously. Everyone felt he was gullible and only had his position because of his long friendship with the Kaiser, so they took the word of the Prince.

So now the final week of peace had begun with Austria mobilizing while sending signals that no one was available to receive. And Russia in their first stages of mobilizing while pretending not to be; with Germany beginning to feel directly threatened; and with France's Ambassador urging the Russians as well as the Serbians on. Britain was sending signals that the continental powers where free to interpret as they wished. Berlin and Paris were both for the time being, effectively leaderless. Nothing had happened, but there was no one in control.

                                                                 Secrets and Lies


As the details of Austria's demand became known 3 1/2 weeks of drift came abruptly to an end. The possibility of war became increasingly real. Not only in Vienna, Berlin, and St. Petersburgh, but also in London, Rome, and Pairs. Awareness dawned that this was a genuinely dangerous crisis. Men with power where deciding the fate of Europe, the same men who brought war on and failed to do anything to keep war from happening. They told lies, made mistakes, and missed opportunities. With a few if any exceptions they were decent, well-intended men, and almost always they acted for what they thought were the best of reasons. But little of what they did produced the results they intended.


Saturday July 25th

The kingdom of Serbia, 48 hours almost to the minute after receiving Austria-Hungary's demands, presented its response. They agreed to only half of the 10 demands. The Austro-Hungarian ambassador to Serbia, Baron Giesl, followed his instructions to find this unacceptable and broke off diplomatic relations immediately, a 1/2 hour later he was on a train and crossing the Hungarian border.

Both countries announced that they were mobilizing. (Serbia had started mobilizing hour before delivering its response). Russia was not mobilizing, but they where doing what they call a Period Preparatory to War, in which they were calling all officers back to duty, and all army units who were on summer maneuvers had been called back. The military districts of Kazan, Kiev, Moscow, and Odessa were ordered to make ready. More secretly, preparations also began in the Warsaw, Vilna, and St. Petersburg districts. This last was particularly dangerous, as those 3 districts threatened Germany directly. But there was even more to July 25th then that.

The Serbian response to Austria's demands, far from being defiant, was actually conciliatory, respectful, and at times almost submissive in tone. It explained that while Serbia could agree unconditionally to a number of the demands, it had questions about several others-not objections, just questions-and could not accept one. The Royal Government said they couldn't accept the demand for Austria to be directly involved in Belgrade's search for and prosecution of the assassination plotters. They said it would be a violation of the constitution and the law of criminal procedure.

As positive as it was in many ways, and as clever as they thought it was to cooperate and hold off the Austrians, while impressing the rest of the world, was one of the mistakes that led to war. By declining to yield, the Serbs gave Berchtold, Conrad, and their cohorts the one thing they wanted: an excuse for military action. Worse, they did this unnecessarily. They might have responded differently-not more shrewdly, their document being nothing but shrewed, but more effectively-had they not been receiving reports about how Russia wanted them to stand firm. But these reports were wishful thinking on the part of Serbia's combative ambassador to Russia, who being manipulated by France's ambassador in St. Petersburg, Maurice Paleologue. They certainly were not in accord with the thinking of Russian officialdom. Tsar Nicholas was leery of a major war because he was fearful of its likely consequences-social and economic strains so severe that they could spark revolution. So was Foreign Minister Sazonov. Both men believed that Russia was years from being ready to fight a war with Germany. Even though Russia was greatly expanding its already huge army and they were also getting help from France in building new networks of railroads to help improve its ability to wage war, but none of this would be done until 1917.

But Sazonov believed that Austria-Hungary was not acting independently but as a tool of Berlin, he felt the Germans were determined to precipitate a preventive war, and that Russia could only protect itself be reacting forcefully and quickly.

The Serbian response might have also been different if someone other than Nikola Pasic had been responsible for preparing it. He had known of the Black Hand's plot to kill the Archduke and even tried to stop it. For this reason he did not want Austria-Hungary to become involved in any investigation dealing with the Archduke's death. He knew it would be bad for not only Serbia, but also for him, especially if Austria found out how much he knew about the Archduke's death, they would start asking questions and then the Black Hand would learn he knew about their plot and tried to stop it. He wanted nothing to get in the way of his re-election.

Now the Austria mobilization that followed, put into motion a plan for assembling 20,000 divisions-some 300,000 troops-just a few miles from Belgrade. In doing this Conrad left himself with only 28 divisions for Galicia to the North, where Austria-Hungary would have to face much larger numbers if Russia went to war. This alarmed the German General Staff. It meant Conrad was leaving the German army without any help in the east if Russia attacked. This showed Conrad's blind determination that Russia would not get involved and he could therefore give the Serbs the thrashing that he had been wanting to give them for years.

With Russia declaring Period Preparatory to War, was taking the necessary steps that would enable them to be able to mobilize their troops quickly. This involved the mustering of 1.1 million troops in the 4 districts nearest to Austria-Hungary.

The Serb's mobilization, which was very small, was based on the assumption that Austria was planning to attack within a few days. This same assumption prompted the Serbs to move their government out of Belgrade and away from the border.

Even though Russia was taking the steps to get their troops together, was not an easy task. They had to call up reserves which was hard because railways were few and far between and the men who reported for duty would have to travel hundreds of miles and then had to be assigned positions before preparing to face an enemy. Plus an invasion into enemy territory was not integral to Russia's mobilization arrangements; this was to be decided according to circumstances. Even after they mobilized, the Russian leadership would continue to have options. Russia would keep its armies on Russian soil without disruption of their ability to act.

Now the Austro-Hungarian Empire faced transport problems similar to, but not as serious as what Russia faced. And like St. Petersburg's, Vienna's mobilization plans gave it a measure of flexibility, Conrad divided his forces into 3 groups; for the use against Serbia, one for Galicia and engagement of the Russians, and the 3rd was to be deployed to either front depending on need. In his decision to send his 3rd division to the South, Conrad was able to assemble 20 divisions for an attack on Serbia.

Germany in 1914 the most modern and efficient of Europe's industrial giants, could mobilize with a speed that was dazzling by comparison with either Russia or Austria-Hungary. The survival of Germany depended on the speed. Ever since 1894, when France and Russia first became allies, Germany knew that going to war with one, meant going to war with both. Knowing that they could not win the war against both. Their mobilization objective was to knock France out of action before Russia could launch their attack. With this plan their first stop would be Paris. They knew once they started they couldn't stop. Just for Germany alone, mobilization equaled war.

But any kind of mobilization was dangerous. It was inherently threatening, and was certain to draw attention.

Austria-Hungary's mobilization, help to capture the Chief of the Serbian Army, the aged Field Marshall Radomir Putnik, he was on his way home from a summer vacation in the Austria Province of Bohemia. But Emperor Franz Joseph demanded that Putnik be allowed to proceed and return to Belgrade. An Old World Courtliness, that Conrad and his troops would have reason to regret their Emperor's chivalry.

                                                    The Hohenzollern's

The flamboyant and erratic Kaiser Wilhelm II owned and loved to show off more than 300 military dress uniforms. He would cheerfully change his costume a dozen times daily. One of the many jokes that made the rounds in Berlin was that the Kaiser wouldn't visit an aquarium without 1st putting on Admiral's regalia, or eat a plum pudding without dressing as a British Field Marshal. He was childish is so many ways, even in 1914, when he was in his early 50's and had ruled Germany for a quarter of a century, nothing had changed about his childish ways. Not surprisingly, many of the men who were sworn to serve him regarded him not just as immature but as mentally unstable.

Wilhelm was only the 3rd member of the Hohenzollern family to occupy the throne of imperial Germany: the 2nd had been Kaiser for only months. The Hohenzollern's unlike the Hapsburg's, were in 1914 a still rising family at the top of a rising nation. Despite many interruptions that had brought them to the brink of ruin, they had been rising for 500 years, slowly emerging from obscurity in the late Middle Ages and eventually surpassing all the older and grander dynasties of Europe.

They were definitely different than the Hapsburg's. The Hohenzollern's rose in conquest threw war instead of threw matrimony like the Hapsburg's. They had a remarkable history not just of ruling countries, but of inventing the countries they wanted to rule. It is scarcely going to far to say that the Hohenzollern's-assisted, of course, by their brilliant servant Otto Von Bismarck- invented modern Germany.

The 1st Hohenzollern of note was one Count Friedrick, a member of the miner nobility who in the early 15th century somehow got the Holy Roman Emperor to appoint him Margrave of Brandenburg an area centered on Berlin in northeastern Germany. In his new position Friedrick was an elector, one of the hereditary magnates entitled to choose new emperors. His descendants increased their holdings during the next century and a half, expanding to the east by getting possession of a wild and backward territory called Prussia.

Inhabited originally by Slavs rather than Germans, Prussia had been conquered and Christianized in the 1200's by a religious order called the Teutonic Knights. It happened that, when the Protestant Reformation swept across northern Germany, the head of the Teutonic Knights was a member of the Hohenzollern family, one Albert by name. In 1525 this Albert declared himself a Protestant, which is what all the nobles at that time where doing. He declared that Prussia was now a Duchy, and that he-with no surprise-was its Duke. Albert's little dynasty of Hohenzollern's died out in the male line after only two generations, at which time a marriage was arranged between the female heir and her cousin, the Hohenzollern elector of Brandenburg.

The 1st half of the 17th century was a low point for the family; Brandenburg found itself on the losing side in a Northern European War and for a while was occupied by Sweden. Times got better with Friedrick Wilhelm, called the Great Elector, who was Margrave from 1640 to 1688 and originated the superbly trained army that forever after would be the Hohenzollern trademark and would cause Napoleon to say that Prussia had been hatched out of a cannonball. Friedrick Wilhelm made Brandenburg the most powerful of Germany's Protestant states, 2nd only to Catholic Austria to the south.

In 1701 the Hapsburg Holy Roman Emperor found himself in a struggle over who would inherit the throne of Spain. He needed help-and the tough little army of Brandenburg is what he wanted. The Hohenzollern elector at the time, another Fredrick wanted something in return; he wanted to be King. This presented more difficulties, but the emperor's need was real, so thing where worked out. He decided that Fredrick could have a kingdom, but it had to be called Prussia instead of Brandenburg. And by the rules, Fredrick could not be king, but he could style himself as king in Prussia. This made Fredrick's new status ridiculous, but it was a step towards real Kingship and Fredrick settled for it. He became King Fredrick 1st, the 1st Hohenzollern to be a monarch, if only in a way.

Not till two generations later, did the Hohenzollern's became Kings of Prussia. This happen during one of the most remarkable reigns in European history, that of Fredrick 2nd, who by the age of 33 was known to all of Europe as Frederick the Great. Fredrick is to big a subject to be dealt with in a few paragraphs. He was the 1st Monarch in all of Europe to abolish religious discrimination, press censorship, and judicial torture. He was also a ruthless adventurer all to eager for glory, and he and his kingdom would have been destroyed except for the lucky fact that, Fredrick happen to be a military genius. In the course of his long life, he teetered more than once on the brink of total failure-at one point he was at war with Austria, France, Russia, and Sweden simultaneously-but after many hair raising escapes, he raised Prussia to the ranks of Europe's leading powers.

He made the Hohenzollern's one of the leading dynasties of Europe despite never having or ever wanting children. So when he died in 1786, just before the French Revolution, the crown was passed to an untalented nephew.

The wars of Napoleon undid all of Fredrick's achievements. Prussia was reduced to a state of collapse, then to submissive vassalage to France. Also with humiliating the German States, theirs ignited German Nationalism. This lead to an uprising after Napoleon's disastrous invasion of Russia.

The Prussia Army was lethal as always and contributed significantly to the defeat of the French at Leipzig and Waterloo. Hohenzollern princes were conspicuous on the battle field; one of them was killed leading a Calvary charge. In 1815 the congress of Vienna restored Prussia back to a major power state, but in a new way; some of the kingdoms eastern most holdings were given to Russia and Austria and replaced with others in the west. Prussia thus became the only major power whose subjects were almost all German.

This was an important time when Germans everywhere were beginning to talk of unification. The big question was whether there would be a Greater Germany led by Austria or a lesser Germany from which Austria would be excluded.

The century following the defeat of Napoleon brought triumph after triumph to the Hohenzollern's. In 1864, guided by Bismarck, Prussia took the dissipated but largely German provinces of Schleswig  and Holstein from Denmark. Two years after that it fought Austria and won so conclusively as to part its claim to leadership among the German states beyond challenge.

The Hohenzollern realm now stretched across northern Germany all the way to the border with France and included 2/3 of the population of non-Austria-Germany. In 1870 the French Emperor Napoleon III, in trouble politically and desperate to find some way of reversing his fortunes, was seduced by Bismarck into committing the folly of declaring war. With Prussia and German allied (Austria was not included) They astonished the world by demolishing the French Army at the Battle of Sedan.

In the hall of Mirrors at the Palace of Versailles, the assembled German princes declared the creation of a New German Empire, where the states can continue to have their own kings but over which there would now be a Hohenzollern Emperor. As part of the spoils of war, the German princes wanted to take the province of Alsace from France. This territory was not important, but the Germans believed it had been stolen by Louis XIV two centuries before and was German rather than French. Bismarck foresaw that France would never forgive the loss. He predicted that for Germany to keep what it had won, they would have to fight another war after a 1/2 century had passed. His was right as usual, but made no serious effort to block the annexation.

The 1st ruler of the newly united Germany, King Wilhelm I of Prussia, was unhappy about his elevation, even sullen. In his opinion, being King was a great honor, but an empire needed an emperor. He remained the King of Prussia while assuming his new title, and Prussia continued to be a distant state with its own government and military administration. It continued to be dominated by a centuries old Prussia Elite, The Junkers, whose sons went into the army and the civil administration and swore loyalty not to their county but to their King.

At this point in 1871, the Hohenzollern's stood at the pinnacle of Europe. Kaiser Wilhelm 1st, a man so stolid and methodical that the people of Berlin could set their watches by his appearances at his windows, and he ruled what was unquestionably, the most powerful and vigorous country in Europe. Plus he had a wealthy heir; his son, Crown Prince Fredrick. Who loyal to the centuries old of his family had led armies threw all the great campaigns leading up to the creation of the empire. Now the Crown Prince was happily married to the eldest daughter of Queen Victoria.

His wife was a very serious-minded young woman who had won her husband over to the idea of one, after they inherited the throne, transforming Germany into a democratic monarchy on the British model. Together, meanwhile, they were producing yet another generation of Hohenzollern's. Their eldest child was a boy who bore his grandfather's name. He had a withered, useless left arm-a troubling defect in the heir to a line of warrior Kings-but he was determined healthy otherwise and not unintelligent.

When his grandfather became Emperor, the boy Wilhelm was 12 years old, his father barely 40. But only 17 years later, filled with insecurities but determined to prove himself a mighty leader, a worthy All-High Warlord, this same boy would ascend to the throne as Wilhelm II.

Count Istvan Tisza (1861-1918)

Served as Hungarian Prime Minister from the wars inception until his ousting in May of 1917 with the accession of Karl I as Emperor in place of the ageing Franz Joseph.

Himself the son of a Prime Minister, Tisza first came to power as head of the Liberal Party from 1903-1905. Re-appointed premier in 1913 for a second time, Tisza was a tireless campaigner for the recognition of Hungarian rights within the Dual Monarch.

Tisza was well aware of the dangers that war posed to the Austro-Hungarian empire. Noting that Slavs already outnumbered Magyars, Tiszar was fearful of the nationalist effects a war would engender among the empire's invariably discontented Slav people.

He also understood that even a successful war came with its own set of dangers. He was at pains to avoid the possibility that Serbia could find itself annexed by a victorious Austria-Hungary, thus perhaps creating a Triple Monarchy with yet more Slavs among its population.

Consequently Tisza acted as the dove in the Austro-Hungarian government during the crisis of July 1914, resstraining the more impetuous Imperial Foreign Minister Berchtold and Chief of Staff Conrad from launching a pre-emptive strike at Serbia in early July(without even a declaration of war beforehand). Both Berchtold and Conrad were keen to achieve a final settlement with Serbia at the point of a gun.

Tisza's insistence that all diplomatic avenues be explored before a military solution settled upon, did however rob Austria-Hungary of the element of surprise during the early phase of the war.

Nevertheless, once war was finally declared on July 28th, 1914, Tisza threw his whole weight behind the Austro-Hungarian war effort. He remained nonetheless as keen as ever to ensure that Hungary was not treated as the junior partner in the prosecution of the combined war effort. In practical terms this required that Tisza exercise a degree of blackmail over Vienna(which was certainly not lost upon Vienna).

For example he halted the free passage of food from Hungary to Austria in the spring of 1915- placing local needs above that of the empire(1914 had seen a poor harvest)- and declined to join a Joint Food Committee until February 1917.

In short, Tisza used the threat of withdrawing food supplies as a method of securing Hungarian influence at Imperial level. Reigning at home in what amounted to a dictatorial manner, Tisza nevertheless took care to retain the Magyar parliament in session. The parliament had little actual sway over policy, but Tisza could still point to it as legitimising his government, a point of more political value in Vienna than in Hungary.

In terms of funding the war effort Tisza gambled upon a short war. By declining to raise new taxes or to increase existing levels of taxation, he was staking all on winning the war: he would then ensure the defeated nations paid back the loans he had secured to fund the war. Short-sighted as this policy seems it yet ensured that Magyar support for the remained high.

With Karl's accession to the throne in December 1916, Tisza's hold on power- and certainly his influence- already weakened by continued military defeats began to slip.

Suffering from a popular perception as a man determined to see the war through to the bitter end (by no means the case), and as an opponent of social and political reform (certainly true), Tisza's resignation was forced by the more pro-Allied Emperor in May 1917. He thereafter served, for a short while, in the Hungarian home army.

Still associated with aggressive prosecution of a hopeless war a year later, and even (ironically) blamed for its inception, Magyar Communists assassinated Tisza in Budapest on October 31, 1918.

Tsar Nicholas II

He was born on May 18th, 1868 in Tsarskoe Selo. He was Russia's last Emperor.

Nicholas succeeded his father's throne, when Alexander III, died from liver disease on October 20th, 1984. Nicholas was 26.

That same year Nicholas married Princess Alexandra of Hesse-Darmstadt, the granddaughter of Queen Victoria. Alexandra was instrumental in convincing Nicholas to resist ever growing calls for increased democracy within Russia. Alexander was a firm believer in the autocratic principle. Nicholas required little persuasion; as a nationalist he decried those who favoured western style democracy. Alexandra was unpopular with the Russian elite, more so as evidence emerged of her increasing influence over her husband. Her reliance upon Grigory Rasputin in determining Russian policy angered many, utlimately leading to Rasputin's assassination.

Defeat in the war with Japan of 1904-1905 seriously damaged Russian prestige- and with it the esteem of the monarchy. Japan had launched a surprise attack on the Russian fleet based at Port Arthur; throughout the war the Russian navy was found wanting, although the army fared better in repulsing Japanese troops in Manchuria.

At the same time as Russia faced war with Japan, there was increasing industrial unrest at home. Workers who faced long hours and poor conditions increasingly formed protests.

In 1904 110,000 workers in St. Petersburg striked for four days in protest at the declining value of wages in real terms. Georgi Gapon, of the Assembly of Russian Workers, appealed to Nicholas for help in reducing working hours and improving pay and conditions. A consequent march on the Winter Palace was greeted by armed Cossacks: over 100 protestors were killed and many more wounded.

"Bloody Sunday", as it became known, sparked the 1905 Revolution, whereby strikes spread around the country and mutiny throughout the army and navy. Leon Trotsky founded the St. Petersburg Soviet in October, with 50 more being established over the next month in the rest of the country.

In response to such a wide-scale protest, and under the advice of close advisers, the Tsar published the "October Manifesto", which granted freedom of conscience, speech, meeting and association, and the end of imprisonment without trial. In addition, no new law would become effective without the approval of the Duma, a consultative body.

The October Manifesto did not satisfy Trotsky (who with his supporters was subsequently arrested for his actions taken in protest) but did take the sting out of the crisis that had formed. Although the Duma had been viewed as a toothless advisory body, at its first meeting in May 1906, it made demands for the releases of political prisoners, for trade union rights and land reform. In rejecting these demands Nicholas promptly dissolved the Duma.

Later that year Nicholas replaced the Moderate Chief Minister Sergi Witte with the more conservative Peter Stolypin. Stolypin attempted to balance the demands of both liberal and conservative factions in the country. He was ultimately unsuccessful: he was assassinated in 1911 by a member of the Socialist Revolutionary Party at the Kiev Opera House.

With Germany's decision to enter into the Triple Alliance system with Austria-Hungary and Italy- whereby each of the three nations agreed to come to the other's aid in the event of attack by either France or Russia-Russia naturally say Germany as its main potential enemy: this despite Nicholas's position as the cousin of German Kaiser, Wilhelm II.

Consequently Russia entered into an alliance with Britain and France, the "Triple Entente". When war was declared by Germany with France in August 1914, Russian came into the war on France's side.

Russian industrial unrest had continued into the first half of 1914. Up to half of the entire workforce are estimated to have striked that year. The war temporarily brought an effective end to industrial unrest however, although it later returned. The war also brought Nicholas political benefits; the establishment united behind him in the conduct of the war.

Dissatisfied with the army's conduct of the war, Nicholas took personal command in September. The Russian army were fighting on the Eastern Front and its ongoing lack of success was causing dissension at home. Unfortunately, now operating under Nicholas II's supreme command, its continued failure reflected directly upon the Tsar himself rather than the army command. Nicholas's popularity dwindled.

By late 1916 royalists within the Duma warned the Tsar that revolution was imminent; even so, Nicholas refused to sanction further constitutional reform. During the so-called "February Revolution" in 1917, which he misinterpreted as a minor uprising, his routine suppression orders to the Petrograd garrison sparked its mutiny on March 10th.

Nicholas II was persuaded to abdicate on March 15th 1917 under the recommendation of the Russian Army High Command. In search of exile elsewhere, Lloyd George offered a haven in Britain,  only for the with to be associated with his autocratic cousin at this point: a controversial decision. 

moved to the Siberian city of Ekaterinburg by the Bolsheviks, Nicholas and his family were executed on the night of  July 16/17, 1918.

Arthur Zimmermann

Born October 5th, 1864 in Marggrabowa, East Prussia(Now Olecka, Poland).  He was the German foreign secretary during part of World War 1(1916-17), the author of a sensational proposal to Mexico to enter into an alliance against the United states.

After a career in the consular service, Zimmermann won transfer to the diplomatic branch in 1901. Because of the retiring nature of Gottlieb von Jagow, who became foreign secretary in 1913, Zimmermann conducted a large share of the relations with foreign envoys. As acting secretary in Jagow's absence, he participated, with Emperor William(Wilhelm II) and Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg, in Germany's decision of July 5th, 1914, to support Austria-Hungary when, after the assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand at Sarajevo, Austria-Hungary put pressure on Serbia, thus angering Russia. Zimmermann drafted the telegram to Vienna embodying Germany's decision, which intensified the crisis that culminated in the outbreak of war.

In 1916, when the German High Command insisted on the resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare as the only remaining weapon to defeat the Allies, even at the risk of provoking the United States into belligerency, Jagow resigned. On November 25th, Zimmermann, who was regarded as "pro-U-boat", was appointed to succeed him. In an effort to nullify or at least to reduce U.S. intervention in Europe by engaging U.S. arms and energies elsewhere, Zimmermann planned to embroil the United States in war with Mexico and Japan. In pursuit of this goal, on January 16th, 1917, he sent a secret telegram in code(through the German ambassador in Washington, D.C.) to the German minister in Mexico, authorizing him to propose an alliance to Mexico's President Venustiano Carranza. The offer included "an understanding on our part that Mexico is to reconquer her lost territory in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona." Carranza was also asked to "invite the immediate adherence of Japan." Intercepted and decoded by British Admiralty intelligence, the telegram was mad available to President Woodrow Wilson, who caused it to be published on March 1st, 1917. In convincing Americans of German hostility toward the United States, the "Zimmermann Note" became one of the factors leading to the U.S. declaration of war against Germany 5 weeks later.

Zimmermann lost office just after the fall of Berthmann Hollweg's government in the summer of 1917 and never held it again. Zimmermann died June 6th, 1940 in Berlin, Germany.

Erich von Falkenhayn

He was born November 11th, 1861 in Graudenz, in West Prussia. He served as Chief of the Imperial German General Staff for part of the 1st World War before his eventual dismissal by Kaiser Wilhelm II. Having joined the army at an early age, Falkenhayn served as a military instructor to the Chinese army in 1899, where he remained until 1903. During the Chinese Boxer Rebellion he was a member of the German General Staff, seeing action when the Allies marched to relieve besieged Peking.

Upon his return to Germany, Falkenhayn continued to serve on the German General Staff, and was appointed Prussian Minister of War in 1913. Whilst in this role he and Helmuth von Moltke, then Chief of Staff, frequently clashed. However, with the declaration of war in August 1914 and the German setback at the Marne, the Kaiser, Wilhelm II, dismissed Moltke and replaced him with Falkenhayn on September 14th, 1914.

Falkenhayn's cautious nature appeared to make him well-suited to the realities of trench warfare, unlike many of his contemporaries. He was inclined to consider defensive rather than offensive operations-a sound strategy, but one ill-suited to the Eastern Front. His approach led him to reject an ambitious plan to capture the entire Russian army championed by Paul von Hindenburg and Erich Ludenorff.

Falkenhayn however believed that the real war was being fought on the other front, the Western Front. He conceived the idea of besieging the historic French city of Verdun in early 1916, of "bleeding it white" as he phrased it. He planned to draw the bulk of the French army into the Verdun salient, thus effectively tying up the French army, and then to methodically destroy them with concentrated artillery fire.

Certainly French losses at Verdun were significant, as were German casualties. It succeeded in diverting French attention solely towards the defence of Verdun, to the extent that the British offensive on the Somme on July 1st, 1916 was executed as much as anything else to provide relief for the French forces at Verdun. Even so, the German Verdun offensive was ultimately a failure; indeed, by the time the Somme offensive was started the French were already beginning to claw back ground.

With the failure of the Verdun offensive, for which the German Chancellor, Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg, was scathing, together with the Russian resurgence at the hands of Brusilov, the loss of Bitolj to the Serbs, and the fall of Gorizia to Italy, the Kaiser finally decided to replace Falkenhayn with the more aggressive von Hindenburg on August 29th, 1916 when he heard news of Romania's declaration of war with Austria-Hungary.

Falkenhayn was sent to the Transylvania Front on August 29th 1916 to command Ninth Army. He defeated the Romanian Army at the Battle of the Red Tower Pass on September 30th, 1916, advancing towards Bucharest. Linking up with Mackensen's army in mid-November, Falkenhayn's troops entered Bucharest on December 6th, thereby defeating Romania.

Falkenhayn was next dispatched to Palestine to command the Ottoman forces in early 1917. A series of setbacks followed: he was defeated by General Allenby at Gaza on October 31st, 1917, and Jerusalem fell to the British in December. Falkenhayn was dismissed by General Liman von Sanders in February 1918; upon his return to Germany he retired.

Erich von Falkenhayn died on April 8th, 1922 near Potsdam.

  

Raymond Poincare

Born August 20, 1860 in Bar-le-Duc France. The son of an engineer, he was educated at the Ecole Polytechnique. After studying law at the University of Paris, he was admitted to the bar in 1882. Elected a deputy in 1887, he became six years later the youngest minister in the history of the Third Republic, holding the portfolio of education. In 1894 he served as minister of finance and in 1895 again as minister of education. In the Dreyfus Affair he declared that new evidence necessitated a retrial.

Despite the promise of a brilliant political career, Poincare left the Chamber of Deputies in 1903, serving until 1912 in the Senate, which was considered comparatively unimportant politically. He devoted most of his time to his private law practice, serving in the cabinet only once. In March 1906, as minister of finance. In January 1912 however, he became prime minister, serving simultaneously as foreign minister until January 1913. In the face of new threats from Germany, he conducted diplomacy with new decisiveness and determination. In August 1912 he assured the Russian government that his government would stand by the Franco-Russian alliance, and in November he concluded an agreement with Britain committing both countries to consult in the event of an international crisis as well as on joint military plans. Although his support of Russian activities in the Balkans and his uncompromising attitude toward Germany have been cited as evidence of his being a warmongering revanchist. Poincare believed that in the existing state of contemporary Europe war was inevitable and that only a strong alliance guaranteed security. His greatest fear was that France might be isolated as it had been in 1870, easy prey for a military superior Germany.

Poincare ran for the office president; despite the opposition of the left, under Georges Clemenceau a lifelong enemy, he was elected on January 17th, 1913. Although the presidency was a position with little real power, he hoped to infuse new vitality into it and make it the base of a union sacree of right, left, and centre. Throughout World War 1(1914-18) he strove to preserve national unity, even confiding the government to Clemenceau, the man best qualified to lead the country to victory.

After his term as president ran out in 1920, Poincare returned to the senate and was for a time chariman of the reparations commission. He supported the thesis of Germany's war quilt implicit in the Versailles Treaty; and when he served again as prime minister and minister for foreign affairs(1922-24), he refused a delay in German reparation payments and in January 1923 ordered French troops into the Ruhr in reaction to the default. Unseated by a leftist bloc, he was returned as prime minister in July 1926 and is largely credited with having solved France's acute financial crisis by stabilizing the value of the franc and basing it on the gold standard. Under his highly successful economic policies the country enjoyed a period of new prosperity. Poincare died October 15, 1934 in Paris.

                                                              Kaiser Wilhelm II

Wilhelm was born on January 27th, 1859 in Berlin, the eldest child of Crown Prince Frederick of Prussia and Victoria, daughter of Queen Victoria of the United Kingdom. A difficult birth left Wilhelm with a withered arm, which he always tried to conceal. In 1881, after a period of military service, Wilhelm married Augusta Victoria, Princess of Schleswig-Holstein, and they had 7 children.

In 1888, Wilhelm's father succeeded as Frederick III. He died shortly afterwards, making Wilhelm kaiser at the age of 29. Although he had previously admired the great German statesman Otto von Bismarck, withing two years Wilhelm had forced his resignation. He was a strong believer in increasing the strength of the German armed forces, particularly the navy. His policies towards Britain were contradictory. He alienated Britain with his naval expansion and a policy of aggressive German colonial expansion, and also supported the Boers in their fight against the British. But he was also closely related to the British royal family and was particularly fond of his grandmother, Queen Victoria.

Following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914, Wilhelm encouraged the Austrians to adopt an uncompromising line against Serbia, effectively writing them a "blank cheque" for German support in the event of war. He appeared not to realise the chain reaction this would trigger. Russia and her allies France and Britain entered the war against Germany and Austria. Wilhelm tried to scale back the mobilisation of Germany's armed forces, but was prevented by the Germany military. While theoretically supreme commander, Wilhelm found himself excluded from military decisions, but crippled chances of a compromise peace by encouraging the grandiose war aims of certain generals and politicians.

In 1918,  the United States' full scale entry into the war, combined with severe German shortages of men and materials from years of attrition-based trench warfare, led to Germany's military collapse. Wilhelm was forced to abdicate and went into exile in the Netherlands. Attempts by the victorious allies to extradite and try him for war crimes came to nothing. With Adolf Hitler's rise to power after 1933, Wilhelm had hopes of being restored but they came to nothing and he died on June 4th, 1941.

Europe on Fire

The day Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie were assassinated, crowds of non-Serbs Bosnians marched through the streets of Sarajevo holding up black-draped Austro-Hungarian flags and pictures of the slain Archduke and his wife Sophie.

Hooligans attacked buildings that housed Bosnian Serb communities-they vandalized schools, newspaper offices and a hotel. They even attacked the residence of the city's leading Orthodox priest, breaking the windows in his home. Demonstrations where happening all over the cities of the dual monarchy, resulting in 50 people getting killed and one injured. Plus Munich and Berlin were rioting as well, but they were smaller riots and non-violent and where quickly subsided.

Now the uproar in the Serb Capital of Belgrade was more intense. The Serbs where "falling into one another's arms of delight". Disorderly crowds roamed the streets and as news arrived of the disturbances in Sarajevo, their jubilation was laced with anger. Belgrade's newspaper was making matters worse by printing that 10,000 of the Serbs living in Austria-Hungary had been injured or killed and that the Serb women where being subjected to outrages. (This was all untrue)

It was very easy to make to much out of this situation. Now the demonstrations in Sarajevo came to an end just in a few hours, and Vienna promptly announced that the victims would be compensated for their loses. The Serb government even conducted itself responsibly, attempting to discourage the demonstrations.

Now life in Vienna went back to normal. The slain Archduke had been to cold a man to even become popular with the public and no one mourned him. Franz's assassination hardly made an impression. So much so that by Sunday and Monday, crowds in Vienna where listening to music and drinking wine like nothing ever happened. In fact hardly anyone went to the Archduke's funeral and his friends where outrage over it. And the only thing Emperor Franz Joseph found necessary was to explain that he should have done more.

The Austro-Hungarain leadership was determined to take action, but was no where near ready to do so. Meeting after meeting occurred 48 hours after Franz's death. Foreign Minister Berchtold, Field Marshall Conrad, Hungarian Prime Minister Istran Tisza, Emperor Franz Joseph and others of the Austro-Hungarian government conferred for hours, but no consensus emerged. Berchtold and Conrad where all for attacking Serbia. But the Emperor was uncertain of this action and Tiszar opposed it. The only thing they all agreed on was that nothing could be done until certain preliminaries had been attended to.

1st they had to make sure they had Germany's support. Austria knew that attacking Serbia was going to be a concern with Russia. And Austria couldn't go to war against Serbia and Russia without Germany's help. Austria also needed Hungary's support, but knew it was going to be hard to get them on board because of the clumsy arrangement that Emperor Franz Joseph had made. Vienna couldn't make war without the consent of Budapest and the Hungarians were sure to have little interest. The Hungarians felt that failure in such a matter would be a disaster, but they also felt that to succeed would be regrettable. 

Finally no action would be possible until the Austria army had been mobilized. And that was going to be a very difficult and expensive task. First the had to get the machines and supplies they needed, plus getting all their troops together. And do all this without Russia and Serbia finding out. Also complicating things was the fact that the President of France Raymond Poincare was paying a visit  to Russia's Capital in St. Petersburgh. If Austria-Hungary took any steps to go after the Serbs or even signaled a mobilization, the leaders of France and Serbia would be given the opportunity to coordinate their response and cement their alliance.

So with everything slowing them down, the Austria-Hungarian armies could not be ready till mid August. The only good note they had was Germany's full support. Kaiser Wilhelm had like and admired Archduke Franz Ferdinand. Kaiser and the men around him needed no reminding that with Russia and France allied against them and Britain leaning that way, Germany needed Austria and needed to help Austria defend itself against the centrifugal force that was the Balkan nationalism.

Now Kaiser was away on his boat when he received word of the assassination. He returned home immediately and flew into a rage when he fount out that the German Ambassador urged the Austrians not to be quick in attacking the Serbs, Kaiser exploded. He stated that Serbia must be disposed of and his words quickly spread to Vienna, and Austria was delighted.This showed the German Ambassador Heinrich von Tschirschky the error of his ways. He knew Kaiser wanted him to be tough and to urge the Austrians to be tough. Heinrich welcomed the challenge, for he feared that Austria-Hungary was weakening almost to the point of collapse.

Now on July 5th and 6th Kaiser and Germany's Deputy Foreign Minister Arthur Zimmerman, met separately with emissaries from Vienna. Kaiser didn't tell the Austrian's what to do, but did tell them that something needed to be done about Serbia and soon. And that they had Germany's full support no matter what. This moment became known as the "Blank Check" the promise that Germany would stand with Vienna no matter what happened. But the Austrian's hadn't come to agreement with Hungary yet, so nothing was being done. So Kaiser nor Zimmerman took the trouble to ask-one indication among many that at this point the Germans did not regard the situation as being serious enough to require much thought or care. Even War Minister Erich von Falkenhayn after being briefed on the situation, thought it likely that the Austrians were going to have to be prodded into action.

Now the Austrian's armed with Kaiser's promise of support from Germany, decided to take everything slow, including telling Germany what their plans where. They didn't even bother to tell Germany that they thought a war was impossible after the French visited St. Petersburgh. Germany assumed that Austria intended to strike at Serbia without delay, which would allow Germany to move all their forces to the border with Russia.

But Kaiser and his associated saw little possibility that Vienna would do anything regarding Serbia. There was even doubt that the Hapsburg Empire would do anything to save itself. The Germans where also scornful about Russia. It was all but inconceivable to them that this time, unlike 1908,1912, and 1913, the Russians would feel not only capable, but compelled to take military action. So shortly after talks with Austria, Kaiser told Falkenhayn that no military preparations were necessary. So Kaiser went back to his boat and told his admirals that they where not headed for war. Besides Tsar's views where not on the side of the Prince's(Franz Ferdinand) murder. Plus France and Russia are not ready for war. So all the German officials went on vacation. With all principal figures of Germany's government and military scattered, there was no one to make or coordinate any plans of responding to anything done by other countries, or even staying abreast of developments. Even during the July 5th & 6th meeting, the Germans showed less interest in the Serbia problem than in Berchtold's arcane scheme for using Bulgaria as a lever to pry Romania out of its alliance with Russia.

Back in Vienna the promise of Germany's support was great news, but all attention had swung to the Hungarians. At center stage was Hungary's Prime Minister Count Tiszar who cared little for the Hapsburg Empire, except for the fact that its existence benefited the Hungarians. Tiszar was absolutely against to any Austro-Hungarian expansion into Serbia. He even warned Emperor Franz Joseph that any effort in that direction would cause a civil war in Hungary.

Hoping to approve a course of action, on July 7th Berchtold assembled Austria-Hungary's Council of Ministries. But little was accomplished. Tiszar wasn't going to do anything and had every intention to divert Berchtold's plans towards Bulgaria and Romania. But when Tiszar saw that everyone had lost interest and realized that a showdown with Serbia was the only thing that would satisfy the Austrians, he found ways to slow down the process. He insisted nothing be done until he had a chance to send a memo to Emperor Franz Joseph explaining his objections. Berchtold and the council members had no choice but to agree. Tiszar was after all the head of the Hungarian government. So most of the discussions was focused on the idea that Serbia should be presented with a set of demands. But Tiszar was afraid that if they made to harsh of demands to the Serbs, it would result in a European War. Tiszar felt if they were reasonable with their demands they would have a splendid diplomatic success. He felt this kind of success would improve their situation and give them a chance of initiating an advantageous policy in the Balkans. But no one agreed or cared about what Tiszar proposed. The Austro-Hungarian War Minister responded that " a diplomatic success would be of no use at all" and would be " interpreted as weakness".

Now with everyone but Tiszar in agreement that they needed to advance on Serbia, one question remained. What would happen to Serbia? Tiszar said we could shrink Serbia down, but we can't annihilate it. He knew the Russians would fight to the death before letting that happen. For once everyone agreed with Tiszar and Serbia would be made smaller. Some parts would go to Bulgaria, Greece, and Albania. What remained of Serbia though formally an autonomous state, was to be an Austro-Hungarian satellite. Now Berchtold seen this as an opportunity to give everyone what they wanted, but had every intention of seeing the destruction of Serbia.

Now the council all agreed that if Serbia was not crushed it would be impossible to keep their south slavs subjects from fighting to break free of Hapsburg control. Another fear they had was how the other great powers like Germany, might react to what was being planned. In the weeks to follow, no one not even Germany would be told of the councils decision to dismember Serbia after taking it by force. On the contrary, all the great powers would be lied to and told that Austria had no territorial aspirations where Serbia was concerned. Tiszar even decided to go along with this approach. In fact later in the meeting, Tiszar told the council he was anxious to meet the others halfway and was prepared to concede that the demands addressed to Serbia be hard indeed. But not to the point that it would alert everyone of their true intentions.

By July 13th, Vienna ambassador in Berlin was reporting that Germany was growing nervous about Vienna's failure to act. Now Tiszar didn't want to use the word ultimatum in with the demands sent to Serbia, so Berchtold cheerfully offered to a compromise. He would send a note with a time limit instead of an ultimatum. The note gave Serbia 48 hours to respond to Vienna without being told what Vienna would do if the response proved unsatisfactory. Austria's ambassadors were under instructions to assure Russia and Germany that Vienna was planning nothing that would cause concern.

But yet again, Berchtold was decieving friends and enemies alike. On July 19th the council met again in Vienna. They reviewed Berchtold's note and gave the approval. Most of the demands where reasonable, a few however where susceptible to being interpreted as requiring Serbia to compromise its sovereignty. The most objectionable called for direct Austria involvement in Serbia's handling of the assassination investigation and related internal affairs. It was agreed that Berchtold have the note delivered to the Prime Minister if Serbia in Belgrad on July 23rd. Tiszar was no longer objecting. With Germany's support and the complexities of the Balkans being almost infinite, he was beginning to see Serbia's friendly relations with Romania as a threat to Hungary's control of Transylvania.

On July 23rd when the note was to be delivered, Prime Minister Pasic knowing a communication from Vienna was coming, left Belgrade on an electioneering trip into Serbia's newest provinces. Giesl von Gieslingen delivered the note. Upon his arrival he was taken to see the Foreign Minister. An interpreter was on hand, because the minister spoke neither German nor French. Giesle read the note with the complaints of Serbia's behavior and told them it would no longer be tolerated. As the Foreign Minister realized what was going on, he tried to tell Giesl that he could not except such note. Giesl, out of patience said fine, the only thing he could do was leave the note and go. In departing he said no response other than unconditional acceptance would satisfy Austria, and that Serbia's response was required by 6pm Saturday.

News of Austria's demand had little impact except for Russia. Britain who was ensnared in a violet crisis having to do with Irish Home Rule, had scant attention for the Balkans. The London newspapers never friendly toward Serbia, dealt generously with Austria's demands. There was even less interest in France. They where dealing with a scandal, that had erupted when the wife of a former Prime Minister shot and killed a newspaper editor. Berlin was also quiet. Kaiser was back sailing and didn't know about the note to Serbia until he seen it in the Norwegian newspapers. And for the 1st time he showed signs of serious concern, and headed home. He still had no idea what the Austrians had put in their note.

Copies of the note where requested, but when they came, they where incomplete and no indication that the Austrians where going to reject the Serbs response. No on knew anything and that was Berchtold's plan all along. Getting his government to commit to action despite Tiszar's resistence and the deadly inertia of the dual monarchy's dual bureacracy, he was determined to make further complications impossible. Thus he compounded his earlier mistakes. He left Russia completely unprepared for the harshness of the note. He done nothing to help newspapers across Europe to help the European public to understand why Austria was taking action at last. Little had been disclosed and less publicized about Vienna's success in tracing the assassination plot back to Belgrade and that the officials of the Kingdom of Serbia had been involved. Vienna had made no public complaints about Belgrade's failure to investigate the assassination. Therefore Vienna's not was more of a surprise, than an active attack on Serbia after the assassination would have been.

By not the assassination of the Archduke was 3 weeks old. And with nothing having be done, everyone went back to day to day life. So no one felt a military action was required.

Russian's Foreign Minister Sergei Sazonov, flew into a rage when he learned of the Austria note. He vented that he and Russia had been deceived, and that there was no way Austria could send such a note without the approval of Germany. Sergei felt both countries where trying to drive Russia out of the Balkans. 

You are setting fire to Europe!! Sazonov told the Austrian Ambassador Prince Regent of Serbia, was sending wires to Tsar Nicholas asking for help. Nicholas was being told that his people would not tolerate another abandonment of their brothers, the South Slavs. Russia would be disgraced and have no more friends in the Balkans, and would definitely have no respect in Europe. Such a failure would end up causing a revolution-worse than the one of 1905.

Russia decided that if they showed enough firmness, perhaps Austria would hold back. But by Friday July 24th, the day before Serbia was to respond to Austria's note, Sazonov was telling the Russian army's Chief of Staff to ready for mobilization. It was at this point that the Balkan crisis became an European one.