Europe on Fire

The day Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie were assassinated, crowds of non-Serbs Bosnians marched through the streets of Sarajevo holding up black-draped Austro-Hungarian flags and pictures of the slain Archduke and his wife Sophie.

Hooligans attacked buildings that housed Bosnian Serb communities-they vandalized schools, newspaper offices and a hotel. They even attacked the residence of the city's leading Orthodox priest, breaking the windows in his home. Demonstrations where happening all over the cities of the dual monarchy, resulting in 50 people getting killed and one injured. Plus Munich and Berlin were rioting as well, but they were smaller riots and non-violent and where quickly subsided.

Now the uproar in the Serb Capital of Belgrade was more intense. The Serbs where "falling into one another's arms of delight". Disorderly crowds roamed the streets and as news arrived of the disturbances in Sarajevo, their jubilation was laced with anger. Belgrade's newspaper was making matters worse by printing that 10,000 of the Serbs living in Austria-Hungary had been injured or killed and that the Serb women where being subjected to outrages. (This was all untrue)

It was very easy to make to much out of this situation. Now the demonstrations in Sarajevo came to an end just in a few hours, and Vienna promptly announced that the victims would be compensated for their loses. The Serb government even conducted itself responsibly, attempting to discourage the demonstrations.

Now life in Vienna went back to normal. The slain Archduke had been to cold a man to even become popular with the public and no one mourned him. Franz's assassination hardly made an impression. So much so that by Sunday and Monday, crowds in Vienna where listening to music and drinking wine like nothing ever happened. In fact hardly anyone went to the Archduke's funeral and his friends where outrage over it. And the only thing Emperor Franz Joseph found necessary was to explain that he should have done more.

The Austro-Hungarain leadership was determined to take action, but was no where near ready to do so. Meeting after meeting occurred 48 hours after Franz's death. Foreign Minister Berchtold, Field Marshall Conrad, Hungarian Prime Minister Istran Tisza, Emperor Franz Joseph and others of the Austro-Hungarian government conferred for hours, but no consensus emerged. Berchtold and Conrad where all for attacking Serbia. But the Emperor was uncertain of this action and Tiszar opposed it. The only thing they all agreed on was that nothing could be done until certain preliminaries had been attended to.

1st they had to make sure they had Germany's support. Austria knew that attacking Serbia was going to be a concern with Russia. And Austria couldn't go to war against Serbia and Russia without Germany's help. Austria also needed Hungary's support, but knew it was going to be hard to get them on board because of the clumsy arrangement that Emperor Franz Joseph had made. Vienna couldn't make war without the consent of Budapest and the Hungarians were sure to have little interest. The Hungarians felt that failure in such a matter would be a disaster, but they also felt that to succeed would be regrettable. 

Finally no action would be possible until the Austria army had been mobilized. And that was going to be a very difficult and expensive task. First the had to get the machines and supplies they needed, plus getting all their troops together. And do all this without Russia and Serbia finding out. Also complicating things was the fact that the President of France Raymond Poincare was paying a visit  to Russia's Capital in St. Petersburgh. If Austria-Hungary took any steps to go after the Serbs or even signaled a mobilization, the leaders of France and Serbia would be given the opportunity to coordinate their response and cement their alliance.

So with everything slowing them down, the Austria-Hungarian armies could not be ready till mid August. The only good note they had was Germany's full support. Kaiser Wilhelm had like and admired Archduke Franz Ferdinand. Kaiser and the men around him needed no reminding that with Russia and France allied against them and Britain leaning that way, Germany needed Austria and needed to help Austria defend itself against the centrifugal force that was the Balkan nationalism.

Now Kaiser was away on his boat when he received word of the assassination. He returned home immediately and flew into a rage when he fount out that the German Ambassador urged the Austrians not to be quick in attacking the Serbs, Kaiser exploded. He stated that Serbia must be disposed of and his words quickly spread to Vienna, and Austria was delighted.This showed the German Ambassador Heinrich von Tschirschky the error of his ways. He knew Kaiser wanted him to be tough and to urge the Austrians to be tough. Heinrich welcomed the challenge, for he feared that Austria-Hungary was weakening almost to the point of collapse.

Now on July 5th and 6th Kaiser and Germany's Deputy Foreign Minister Arthur Zimmerman, met separately with emissaries from Vienna. Kaiser didn't tell the Austrian's what to do, but did tell them that something needed to be done about Serbia and soon. And that they had Germany's full support no matter what. This moment became known as the "Blank Check" the promise that Germany would stand with Vienna no matter what happened. But the Austrian's hadn't come to agreement with Hungary yet, so nothing was being done. So Kaiser nor Zimmerman took the trouble to ask-one indication among many that at this point the Germans did not regard the situation as being serious enough to require much thought or care. Even War Minister Erich von Falkenhayn after being briefed on the situation, thought it likely that the Austrians were going to have to be prodded into action.

Now the Austrian's armed with Kaiser's promise of support from Germany, decided to take everything slow, including telling Germany what their plans where. They didn't even bother to tell Germany that they thought a war was impossible after the French visited St. Petersburgh. Germany assumed that Austria intended to strike at Serbia without delay, which would allow Germany to move all their forces to the border with Russia.

But Kaiser and his associated saw little possibility that Vienna would do anything regarding Serbia. There was even doubt that the Hapsburg Empire would do anything to save itself. The Germans where also scornful about Russia. It was all but inconceivable to them that this time, unlike 1908,1912, and 1913, the Russians would feel not only capable, but compelled to take military action. So shortly after talks with Austria, Kaiser told Falkenhayn that no military preparations were necessary. So Kaiser went back to his boat and told his admirals that they where not headed for war. Besides Tsar's views where not on the side of the Prince's(Franz Ferdinand) murder. Plus France and Russia are not ready for war. So all the German officials went on vacation. With all principal figures of Germany's government and military scattered, there was no one to make or coordinate any plans of responding to anything done by other countries, or even staying abreast of developments. Even during the July 5th & 6th meeting, the Germans showed less interest in the Serbia problem than in Berchtold's arcane scheme for using Bulgaria as a lever to pry Romania out of its alliance with Russia.

Back in Vienna the promise of Germany's support was great news, but all attention had swung to the Hungarians. At center stage was Hungary's Prime Minister Count Tiszar who cared little for the Hapsburg Empire, except for the fact that its existence benefited the Hungarians. Tiszar was absolutely against to any Austro-Hungarian expansion into Serbia. He even warned Emperor Franz Joseph that any effort in that direction would cause a civil war in Hungary.

Hoping to approve a course of action, on July 7th Berchtold assembled Austria-Hungary's Council of Ministries. But little was accomplished. Tiszar wasn't going to do anything and had every intention to divert Berchtold's plans towards Bulgaria and Romania. But when Tiszar saw that everyone had lost interest and realized that a showdown with Serbia was the only thing that would satisfy the Austrians, he found ways to slow down the process. He insisted nothing be done until he had a chance to send a memo to Emperor Franz Joseph explaining his objections. Berchtold and the council members had no choice but to agree. Tiszar was after all the head of the Hungarian government. So most of the discussions was focused on the idea that Serbia should be presented with a set of demands. But Tiszar was afraid that if they made to harsh of demands to the Serbs, it would result in a European War. Tiszar felt if they were reasonable with their demands they would have a splendid diplomatic success. He felt this kind of success would improve their situation and give them a chance of initiating an advantageous policy in the Balkans. But no one agreed or cared about what Tiszar proposed. The Austro-Hungarian War Minister responded that " a diplomatic success would be of no use at all" and would be " interpreted as weakness".

Now with everyone but Tiszar in agreement that they needed to advance on Serbia, one question remained. What would happen to Serbia? Tiszar said we could shrink Serbia down, but we can't annihilate it. He knew the Russians would fight to the death before letting that happen. For once everyone agreed with Tiszar and Serbia would be made smaller. Some parts would go to Bulgaria, Greece, and Albania. What remained of Serbia though formally an autonomous state, was to be an Austro-Hungarian satellite. Now Berchtold seen this as an opportunity to give everyone what they wanted, but had every intention of seeing the destruction of Serbia.

Now the council all agreed that if Serbia was not crushed it would be impossible to keep their south slavs subjects from fighting to break free of Hapsburg control. Another fear they had was how the other great powers like Germany, might react to what was being planned. In the weeks to follow, no one not even Germany would be told of the councils decision to dismember Serbia after taking it by force. On the contrary, all the great powers would be lied to and told that Austria had no territorial aspirations where Serbia was concerned. Tiszar even decided to go along with this approach. In fact later in the meeting, Tiszar told the council he was anxious to meet the others halfway and was prepared to concede that the demands addressed to Serbia be hard indeed. But not to the point that it would alert everyone of their true intentions.

By July 13th, Vienna ambassador in Berlin was reporting that Germany was growing nervous about Vienna's failure to act. Now Tiszar didn't want to use the word ultimatum in with the demands sent to Serbia, so Berchtold cheerfully offered to a compromise. He would send a note with a time limit instead of an ultimatum. The note gave Serbia 48 hours to respond to Vienna without being told what Vienna would do if the response proved unsatisfactory. Austria's ambassadors were under instructions to assure Russia and Germany that Vienna was planning nothing that would cause concern.

But yet again, Berchtold was decieving friends and enemies alike. On July 19th the council met again in Vienna. They reviewed Berchtold's note and gave the approval. Most of the demands where reasonable, a few however where susceptible to being interpreted as requiring Serbia to compromise its sovereignty. The most objectionable called for direct Austria involvement in Serbia's handling of the assassination investigation and related internal affairs. It was agreed that Berchtold have the note delivered to the Prime Minister if Serbia in Belgrad on July 23rd. Tiszar was no longer objecting. With Germany's support and the complexities of the Balkans being almost infinite, he was beginning to see Serbia's friendly relations with Romania as a threat to Hungary's control of Transylvania.

On July 23rd when the note was to be delivered, Prime Minister Pasic knowing a communication from Vienna was coming, left Belgrade on an electioneering trip into Serbia's newest provinces. Giesl von Gieslingen delivered the note. Upon his arrival he was taken to see the Foreign Minister. An interpreter was on hand, because the minister spoke neither German nor French. Giesle read the note with the complaints of Serbia's behavior and told them it would no longer be tolerated. As the Foreign Minister realized what was going on, he tried to tell Giesl that he could not except such note. Giesl, out of patience said fine, the only thing he could do was leave the note and go. In departing he said no response other than unconditional acceptance would satisfy Austria, and that Serbia's response was required by 6pm Saturday.

News of Austria's demand had little impact except for Russia. Britain who was ensnared in a violet crisis having to do with Irish Home Rule, had scant attention for the Balkans. The London newspapers never friendly toward Serbia, dealt generously with Austria's demands. There was even less interest in France. They where dealing with a scandal, that had erupted when the wife of a former Prime Minister shot and killed a newspaper editor. Berlin was also quiet. Kaiser was back sailing and didn't know about the note to Serbia until he seen it in the Norwegian newspapers. And for the 1st time he showed signs of serious concern, and headed home. He still had no idea what the Austrians had put in their note.

Copies of the note where requested, but when they came, they where incomplete and no indication that the Austrians where going to reject the Serbs response. No on knew anything and that was Berchtold's plan all along. Getting his government to commit to action despite Tiszar's resistence and the deadly inertia of the dual monarchy's dual bureacracy, he was determined to make further complications impossible. Thus he compounded his earlier mistakes. He left Russia completely unprepared for the harshness of the note. He done nothing to help newspapers across Europe to help the European public to understand why Austria was taking action at last. Little had been disclosed and less publicized about Vienna's success in tracing the assassination plot back to Belgrade and that the officials of the Kingdom of Serbia had been involved. Vienna had made no public complaints about Belgrade's failure to investigate the assassination. Therefore Vienna's not was more of a surprise, than an active attack on Serbia after the assassination would have been.

By not the assassination of the Archduke was 3 weeks old. And with nothing having be done, everyone went back to day to day life. So no one felt a military action was required.

Russian's Foreign Minister Sergei Sazonov, flew into a rage when he learned of the Austria note. He vented that he and Russia had been deceived, and that there was no way Austria could send such a note without the approval of Germany. Sergei felt both countries where trying to drive Russia out of the Balkans. 

You are setting fire to Europe!! Sazonov told the Austrian Ambassador Prince Regent of Serbia, was sending wires to Tsar Nicholas asking for help. Nicholas was being told that his people would not tolerate another abandonment of their brothers, the South Slavs. Russia would be disgraced and have no more friends in the Balkans, and would definitely have no respect in Europe. Such a failure would end up causing a revolution-worse than the one of 1905.

Russia decided that if they showed enough firmness, perhaps Austria would hold back. But by Friday July 24th, the day before Serbia was to respond to Austria's note, Sazonov was telling the Russian army's Chief of Staff to ready for mobilization. It was at this point that the Balkan crisis became an European one.